Manila's SCS Policy: ASEAN Response

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Post on Nov 16, 2024

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Manila's SCS Policy: ASEAN Response

The South China Sea (SCS) remains a focal point of geopolitical tension, with the Philippines playing a crucial role due to its proximity to contested features and its active involvement in ASEAN. Manila's SCS policy, characterized by a delicate balance between asserting its sovereign rights and maintaining regional stability, has elicited varying responses from within ASEAN. Understanding this dynamic is crucial to comprehending the complexities of the SCS dispute.

The Pillars of Manila's SCS Policy

Manila's approach to the SCS dispute rests on several key pillars:

1. Upholding International Law:

The Philippines consistently emphasizes the importance of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as the legal framework for resolving SCS disputes. The 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling, which invalidated China's expansive nine-dash line claim, serves as a cornerstone of Manila's legal arguments. This commitment to international law forms the bedrock of its approach.

2. Strengthening Bilateral Ties:

The Philippines actively engages in bilateral diplomacy, particularly with key partners like the United States, Japan, and Australia. These partnerships provide crucial support in terms of security cooperation, capacity building, and diplomatic backing. This multifaceted approach strengthens Manila's position in the face of regional power dynamics.

3. ASEAN Centrality:

Manila strongly advocates for the role of ASEAN in managing the SCS dispute. It believes that a regional approach, built on consensus and adherence to international law, is the most effective way to mitigate tensions and foster peaceful resolution. This commitment highlights the importance of regional cooperation in navigating the complexities of the SCS issue.

4. Balancing Sovereignty and Regional Stability:

Manila’s policy walks a tightrope, balancing its own sovereign claims over its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) with the need for regional stability. This necessitates careful diplomacy, strategic partnerships, and a nuanced approach that avoids escalating tensions. The challenge lies in protecting national interests without triggering wider conflict.

ASEAN's Diverse Responses to Manila's Policy

ASEAN's response to Manila’s SCS policy is far from monolithic. While the organization generally supports the adherence to UNCLOS, individual member states exhibit varying degrees of engagement and commitment:

1. Supportive Members:

Some ASEAN members, particularly those with overlapping interests or concerns about China's assertiveness, actively support the Philippines' position. They might offer diplomatic backing, participate in joint patrols, or express solidarity through joint statements.

2. Neutral Members:

Other ASEAN members maintain a more neutral stance, prioritizing the preservation of regional stability and avoiding direct confrontation with China. Their response is often characterized by cautious language and a focus on consensus-building within ASEAN.

3. Members with Close Ties to China:

Some ASEAN members maintain close economic and political ties with China, which may influence their response to Manila's policy. These countries might prioritize maintaining good relations with China, potentially leading to a less vocal or less supportive stance on the Philippines' claims.

Challenges and Future Outlook

Manila faces several challenges in implementing its SCS policy:

• Balancing competing interests: The need to balance relations with major powers, particularly the US and China, presents a significant diplomatic challenge.
• Maintaining ASEAN unity: Achieving a united ASEAN front on the SCS issue remains elusive due to differing national interests and sensitivities.
• Enforcing the arbitral ruling: Translating the 2016 arbitral ruling into concrete action remains a considerable hurdle.

The future of Manila's SCS policy will depend on its ability to navigate these challenges. Continued engagement with regional partners, a steadfast commitment to international law, and a flexible approach to diplomacy will be crucial in safeguarding the Philippines' interests and contributing to a more stable and peaceful South China Sea. The evolving geopolitical landscape, including the ongoing power dynamics between the US and China, will also significantly shape the trajectory of Manila's policy and ASEAN's overall response.